Inflation hits four-year high

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Headline inflation kill a 4-year high concerning 1.3% in March, the highest due to the fact that May 2017.

Inflation did no longer simply dehydrate the 1.0% mark within March, such went past such at 1.3%.

This is the easiest considering that the 1.6% recorded between May 2017, and is a complete turnaround beyond the deflation experienced final year into the pandemic.

Inflation used to be pushed via a quicker make bigger within non-public transport and services prices, but tempered through a slowdown between retail & mean fit-out then electrical energy & gasoline prices.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economist Barnabas Gan said the rise in inflation did not surprise, as global oil prices were higher in March.

Analysts expect prices to continue to pick up in the coming months.

“The inflation outlook remains one where external pricing pressures will continue to rise in the near term amid the recovering global oil prices and decreasing capacity slack in major economies. In addition, domestic consumption is also stepping up to broaden the price pressures across more segments of the CPI basket,” said Selena Ling, Head of Research and Strategy for OCBC Treasury Research.

Potential drivers for higher prices include the the recovery of global oil prices to pre-pandemic levels base effects from last year’s deflation and higher electricity tariffs.

Despite improving headline and core inflation, which rose by 0.5% in March, analysts expect the Montary Authority of Singapore to keep monetary policy settings unchanged.

“We don’t think rising inflation this year will warrant a tightening cycle to start in October 2021… Overall, we expect the MAS to start its tightening cycle in October 2022, but there is a notable risk that it will move in April 2022 if things improve faster-than-expected,” said HSBC Global Research Economist Yun Liu.

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